Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP

Matthew Kingston Harris

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

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Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP

Matthew Kingston Harris

Published in Social Sciences (Volume 12, Issue 4)

Received: 14 November 2022 Accepted: 22 February 2023 Published: 15 August 2023

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Abstract

The conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election left open questions about the future of the Republican Party, with or without former president Donald Trump. His presence at the top of many 2024 GOP polls lends the impression of a man hard to separate from his party. I examine this linkage through the 2020 American National Election Study, looking specifically at feelings toward the GOP and GOP figures Donald Trump and Mike Pence and measures of trust and authoritarianism among Trump supporters, as well as open-ended responses on political parties. I find that Trump was a driving force in the 2020 election in a way that Joe Biden was not, and is difficult to disassociate from the Republican Party. The strongest Republican Party identifiers seem to like Trump more than the party itself. His supporters demonstrate distrust of both the news media and experts while believing that corruption declined under Trump. When asked in open-ended questions to talk about political parties, survey respondents were far more likely to mention Donald Trump when discussing party negatives than any other candidate in recent years. In sum, these analyses point to a future in which Trump will very much be a defining figure in the Republican Party.

Published in	Social Sciences (Volume 12, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15
Page(s)	178-182
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Public Opinion, Political Parties, Authoritarianism, Donald Trump

References

[1]	McGirr, L. (2021, January 13). Trump is the Republican party’s past and its future. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/opinion/gop-trump.html
[2]	Axelrod, T. (2021, November 2). Trump leads in hypothetical 2024 GOP primary: poll. The Hill. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579586-trump-leads-in-hypothetical-2024-gop-primary-poll
[3]	Galvin, D. (2020). Party domination and base mobilization: Donald Trump and Republican party building in a polarized era. The Forum, 18 (2), 135-168. https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2020-2003
[4]	Jacobson, G. (2021). Donald Trump’s big lie and the future of the Republican party. Presidential Studies Quarterly 51 (2), 273-289. https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12716
[5]	Jacobson, G. (2018). The effects of the early Trump presidency on public attitudes toward the Republican Party. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 48 (3), 404-435. https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12476
[6]	MacWilliams, M. C. (2016). Who decides when the party doesn’t? authoritarian voters and the rise of Donald Trump. PS: Political Science, 49 (4), 716–721. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096516001463
[7]	Altemeyer, B. (1988). Enemies of freedom: understanding right wing authoritarianism. Jossey-Bass.
[8]	Cox, G. W. & McCubbins M. D. (1993). Legislative leviathan: party government in the house. University of California Press.
[9]	Lewis-Beck, M. S., Jacoby, W. G., Norpoth, H., & Weisberg, H. F. (2008). The American voter revisited. The University of Michigan Press.
[10]	Baker, J. & Bader, C. (2021). Xenophobia, partisanship, and support for Donald Trump and the Republican party. Race and Social Problems 14, 69-83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12552-021-09337-0
[11]	Blain, G. & Lovett, K. (2013, July 25). Two former leaders of New York State Democratic Party suggest that Anthony Weiner and Eliot Spitzer to end their campaigns. New York Daily News. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/democratic-chairman-aim-spitzer-weiner-article-1.1408978
[12]	Knuckey, J. & Hassan, K. (2020). Authoritarianism and support for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The Social Science Journal, 59 (1), 47-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2019.06.008
[13]	Feldman S. (2003). Enforcing social conformity: a theory of authoritarianism. Political Psychology, 24 (1), 41-74. https://doi.org/10.1111/0162-895X.00316
[14]	Wronski, J., Bankert, A., Amira, K., Johnson, A., & Levitan, L. (2018). A tale of two Democrats: how authoritarianism divides the Democratic Party. The Journal of Politics, 80 (4), 1384- 1388. https://doi.org/10.1086/699338
[15]	Luttig, M. (2021). Reconsidering the relationship between authoritarianism and Republican support in 2016 and beyond. The Journal of Politics, 83 (2), 783-787. https://doi.org/10.1086/710145

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Matthew Kingston Harris. (2023). Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP. Social Sciences, 12(4), 178-182. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

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Matthew Kingston Harris. Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP. Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(4), 178-182. doi: 10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

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Matthew Kingston Harris. Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP. Soc Sci. 2023;12(4):178-182. doi: 10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15,
  author = {Matthew Kingston Harris},
  title = {Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP},
  journal = {Social Sciences},
  volume = {12},
  number = {4},
  pages = {178-182},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ss.20231204.15},
  abstract = {The conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election left open questions about the future of the Republican Party, with or without former president Donald Trump. His presence at the top of many 2024 GOP polls lends the impression of a man hard to separate from his party. I examine this linkage through the 2020 American National Election Study, looking specifically at feelings toward the GOP and GOP figures Donald Trump and Mike Pence and measures of trust and authoritarianism among Trump supporters, as well as open-ended responses on political parties. I find that Trump was a driving force in the 2020 election in a way that Joe Biden was not, and is difficult to disassociate from the Republican Party. The strongest Republican Party identifiers seem to like Trump more than the party itself. His supporters demonstrate distrust of both the news media and experts while believing that corruption declined under Trump. When asked in open-ended questions to talk about political parties, survey respondents were far more likely to mention Donald Trump when discussing party negatives than any other candidate in recent years. In sum, these analyses point to a future in which Trump will very much be a defining figure in the Republican Party.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP
AU  - Matthew Kingston Harris
Y1  - 2023/08/15
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15
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AB  - The conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election left open questions about the future of the Republican Party, with or without former president Donald Trump. His presence at the top of many 2024 GOP polls lends the impression of a man hard to separate from his party. I examine this linkage through the 2020 American National Election Study, looking specifically at feelings toward the GOP and GOP figures Donald Trump and Mike Pence and measures of trust and authoritarianism among Trump supporters, as well as open-ended responses on political parties. I find that Trump was a driving force in the 2020 election in a way that Joe Biden was not, and is difficult to disassociate from the Republican Party. The strongest Republican Party identifiers seem to like Trump more than the party itself. His supporters demonstrate distrust of both the news media and experts while believing that corruption declined under Trump. When asked in open-ended questions to talk about political parties, survey respondents were far more likely to mention Donald Trump when discussing party negatives than any other candidate in recent years. In sum, these analyses point to a future in which Trump will very much be a defining figure in the Republican Party.
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Author Information

Matthew Kingston Harris

Department of History, Political Science, and Interdisciplinary Studies, Park University, Parkville, USA

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APA Style

Matthew Kingston Harris. (2023). Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP. Social Sciences, 12(4), 178-182. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

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ACS Style

Matthew Kingston Harris. Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP. Soc. Sci. 2023, 12(4), 178-182. doi: 10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

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AMA Style

Matthew Kingston Harris. Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP. Soc Sci. 2023;12(4):178-182. doi: 10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15,
  author = {Matthew Kingston Harris},
  title = {Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP},
  journal = {Social Sciences},
  volume = {12},
  number = {4},
  pages = {178-182},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ss.20231204.15},
  abstract = {The conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election left open questions about the future of the Republican Party, with or without former president Donald Trump. His presence at the top of many 2024 GOP polls lends the impression of a man hard to separate from his party. I examine this linkage through the 2020 American National Election Study, looking specifically at feelings toward the GOP and GOP figures Donald Trump and Mike Pence and measures of trust and authoritarianism among Trump supporters, as well as open-ended responses on political parties. I find that Trump was a driving force in the 2020 election in a way that Joe Biden was not, and is difficult to disassociate from the Republican Party. The strongest Republican Party identifiers seem to like Trump more than the party itself. His supporters demonstrate distrust of both the news media and experts while believing that corruption declined under Trump. When asked in open-ended questions to talk about political parties, survey respondents were far more likely to mention Donald Trump when discussing party negatives than any other candidate in recent years. In sum, these analyses point to a future in which Trump will very much be a defining figure in the Republican Party.},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Donald Trump and the Future of the GOP
AU  - Matthew Kingston Harris
Y1  - 2023/08/15
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15
T2  - Social Sciences
JF  - Social Sciences
JO  - Social Sciences
SP  - 178
EP  - 182
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-988X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20231204.15
AB  - The conclusion of the 2020 US presidential election left open questions about the future of the Republican Party, with or without former president Donald Trump. His presence at the top of many 2024 GOP polls lends the impression of a man hard to separate from his party. I examine this linkage through the 2020 American National Election Study, looking specifically at feelings toward the GOP and GOP figures Donald Trump and Mike Pence and measures of trust and authoritarianism among Trump supporters, as well as open-ended responses on political parties. I find that Trump was a driving force in the 2020 election in a way that Joe Biden was not, and is difficult to disassociate from the Republican Party. The strongest Republican Party identifiers seem to like Trump more than the party itself. His supporters demonstrate distrust of both the news media and experts while believing that corruption declined under Trump. When asked in open-ended questions to talk about political parties, survey respondents were far more likely to mention Donald Trump when discussing party negatives than any other candidate in recent years. In sum, these analyses point to a future in which Trump will very much be a defining figure in the Republican Party.
VL  - 12
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download